Franchise Your Business

Franchise Sales and Marketing Trends - October 2025

• Big Sky Franchise Team | Tom DuFore

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This is a recording of a live webinar recorded on October 31, 2025, starting at around 1 PM Eastern Time USA.   

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Links from the episode are here:   

  1. https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/
  2. https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/de4d202509pmi.pdf
  3. https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/nmi/gazarob202509svcs.pdf
  4. https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/hospital/august/
  5. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
  6. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf
  7. https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/current/index.html
  8. https://www.census.gov/econ/bfs/current/index.html
  9. https://www.vistage.com/vistage-ceo-confidence-index/
  10. https://www.uschamber.com/sbindex/summary
  11. https://www.franchiseinsights.com/franchise-development/franchise-lead-generation/layoffs-propel-skilled-workers-to-business-ownership/
  12. https://www.franchiseinsights.com/franchise-development/texas-florida-and-new-york-gain-the-most-in-franchise-development-interest/
  13. https://www.franchiseinsights.com/franchise-prospects/meet-the-new-boss-say-franchise-seekers/
  14. https://www.franchiseinsights.com/top-ten-business-opportunity-categories/
  15. https://www.franchise.org/2025/09/ifa-applauds-introduction-of-landmark-american-franchise-act/

ABOUT BIG SKY FRANCHISE TEAM:
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ABOUT BIG SKY FRANCHISE TEAM:
This episode is powered by Big Sky Franchise Team. If you are ready to talk about franchising your business you can schedule your free, no-obligation, franchise consultation online at: https://bigskyfranchiseteam.com/ or by calling Big Sky Franchise Team at: 855-824-4759.


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Tom DuFore:

All right, everyone. Thank you for joining us for another edition of our uh franchise uh sales and marketing trends session. My name is Tom Dufour, and I am the founder and CEO of Big Sky franchise team. And as everyone's loading in here today, I always like to give just a warm welcome to thank you for joining us and as a reminder um and wish you all a happy Halloween. Today's Halloween. So um uh hope you enjoy the holiday here and uh uh uh hopefully you get some trick-or-treaters to your to your home or or get out to uh maybe a uh costume party or something to uh enjoy some of the fun and festivities that the holiday can bring. Um so uh as folks are loading in, just a quick reminder for our session here, we go through a wide variety of economic data and information. Um, certainly I likely missed some out there. So if you tune in and say, Tom, you didn't talk about something that happened or something you saw, I would welcome the feedback and would love to uh see about what that would mean to incorporate uh the report or data point in our next session. Now we've been doing this for several years and uh we go through several different points. And what I try and do as I go through this is to connect, uh connect the franchise, uh, connect this this data to how it might be impacting your franchisees, uh your franchise sales, your franchise marketing efforts, uh, various pieces here on the franchise front. So I'm gonna share my screen and we will go ahead and get right into this. So the first report we like to talk through is through the Institute for Supply Management. It's ismworld.org. And there are three reports. Now, uh the September report here uh of 2025 for the hospital PMI that we're gonna talk through today is actually the final report. So this is the last one uh that they will have uh provided and put through. Um, so uh interesting that that one's being discontinued. Uh, but let's go ahead and jump into the manufacturing PMI. So the manufacturing PMI, and this report was put together by Susan Spence, uh chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. And it says the manufacturing, uh the US manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month after two months of expansion, preceded by 26 months of contraction. The manufacturing PMI registered 49.1% in September, a 0.4 percentage point increase compared to the 48.7% in August. Um, so uh it says of the five sub-indexes that directly factor into the manufacturing PMI, two of them are in expansion territory, and it's the same as the number in August. So we take a look at this data. Now, this is showing uh the data for the previous month. So this is for the month of September here, and you can see it's at 49.1%, and it shows on this chart that 50% is the manufacturing breakeven line, and 42.3% is the overall break-even line for the economy at large. And what I like to look at here is if you look at 2023 uh up to today, you can see that this line is there's this slow, very, very slow going uh line to start progressing upward. So there's a little bit of a trend line that you can you can really make out with your eyes visually from uh oh about uh uh from mid or late uh 2023 up to today, over the last what what we'd look at and say maybe the last roughly 18 to 24 months. And uh to me, that trend line is positive and that it looks like it's trending upward just a smidge at a very, very small uh rate there. Uh and it's again to me, this is part of what we we continue to probably see and feel in the economy is that it's uh kind of uh uh uh uh wobbling a little bit, uh, if if you may feel that feel that in your business or maybe your franchisees. Okay, let's take a look at the services PMI. And this is a report by Steve Miller or an analysis done by Steve Miller, and it says in September, the services PMI registered 50%, a two percentage point decrease compared to the August reading of 52%. A reading above 50% indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding. Below 50% indicates it is generally contracting. The past relationship between the services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the services PMI for September corresponds to a 0.4 percentage point increase in real gross domestic product on an annualized basis. So uh this report uh is interesting. So it's literally right at the half 50th percentile, which is what it says is the break-even line for the economy at large. Now you can see back in 2023 uh on over to today, there's just kind of been a very, very slow decline from uh what looks to be maybe around 52 or 53 percent uh on down to uh you know right around 50 or just above that. Uh but it it's it's a relatively flat line. The last uh eight months, 10 months, or or roughly 12 months or so. Um it uh it's showing that it's really you can see that there's a trend line that's pretty clear that it's been uh on a bit of a downward climb. Uh, but again, this this what I like about this report, what it's showing us is that uh it this this pro to me helps encapsulate or showcase what I've been hearing even from clients and others in the industry say where uh you know it's been hit or miss for business. Some are doing well, some aren't. Uh some are just kind of uh nudging along. So anyway, I I think that this is a worthwhile point. And uh for franchise ours, if your franchise system's struggling, this is something that you may want to share or discuss with your franchisees. And for franchise sales and marketing folks, uh this is something that your franchise buyers might be concerned about, but uh they might not be able to articulate or may not be willing to communicate that to you. So uh this could be something that you decide to share with them uh as as they are considering what to do next. Um let's see. Oh, for the hospital report. Okay, so let me see what this came back as. Well, I don't know where the hospital report went to. Um oh, here it is. Okay, so let's take a look at the hospital report. And it this is the August of 25 hospital report. So this was the final one, and it said that uh, let's see, the economic activity in the hospital sector expanded in August for the second month in a row after one month of contraction, preceded by 21 consecutive months of growth prior to that, says the nation's hospital supply executives in the latest ISM hospital PMI report. Okay, so there this report's been phased out, but uh just kind of the final uh uh mention of that. Now we're at TradingEconomics.com, and this is the U.S. inflation rate. And so we'll scroll down and you can see in September of 25, inflation was 3%. In August of 25, it was 2.9 in July and June it was 2.7 for each. In May it was 2.4, April 2.3, March 2.4, February of 25, 2.8, and January of 25 was 3%. So you can see where at the start of the year, how uh where where the year started in January at 3%, we're at 3% again for the month of September. And the the website reads the annual inflation rate in the US rose to 3% in September 2025, the highest since January from 2.9% in August and below forecasts of 3.1. So uh prices also increased slightly faster for new vehicles. Uh on the other hand, a slowdown was seen for food, used cars and trucks, transportation services, inflation for shelter steadied at 3.6 percent. Um, so you're you're getting a mixed bag of results here. So um to me, this is just saying, you know, this this concern of inflation, uh, it's still there, not out of the not out of the woods yet, as they as the old saying goes. Okay, now this is from the University of Michigan, the surveys of consumers, and they have an index of consumer sentiment. So I like to click on this and look at the last 10 years. And as we look at it, uh you can see that uh for last month, it's one of the lowest readings that's been on uh on hand uh since two months ago. Uh, but then prior to that, it was all the way back mid-year in 2022. So we're looking at uh three years ago when it was this long, uh this low. And you can see that uh things crashed at COVID. Uh then they picked up a bit into 2021, and then a big tumble in down into mid-2022, uh, then a steady rise up until uh uh early this year, right around the first part of 2025. And then you see this almost a uh plummet, it just kind of fell off again uh to where we are today. And so what I'd like to talk about with this, the index of consumer sentiment, when consumer sentiment tends to be uh low, uh that means it's usually a little bit harder uh uh to sell your customers' products or services. So they may not buy uh anything, they or they instead of uh you might find that the average ticket is going down, or uh that the consumer is being a little more selective in what they're actually buying, or trying to negotiate uh some uh better terms or better deals, uh, or uh to try to use coupons when they're coming through. So uh these these behaviors and this kind of a uh low consumer sentiment uh tends to be fairly consistent. So so uh so point being that uh for your franchisees, this might be a harder time to one, sell franchises and two get franchise leads, and three for your franchisees uh in uh doing business with their customers. So you might want to share that with them and preemptively provide some solutions uh to help them out, maybe some marketing solutions, some different sales tactics or pricing strategy you might be able to recommend. All right, next up is the business formation statistics. Uh, this came out in September 11th of 2025. Um so uh what this shows here is that uh the statistics uh were up 473,000 new business applications were filed. Uh, I'm still amazed at the volume of new business applications that continue to get filed. Uh, it's really remarkable to think that uh, you know, at the start of 2020, we were around uh pre-COVID, we were right around uh just under 300,000. And now we're on fast approaching 500,000 uh new business startups or new business applications nationally. Uh so again, to me, this just reiterates that franchise startup is on the minds, hearts and minds of Americans around the country. So uh if if they're not the if if they're inquiring about your franchise, uh you you ought to consider them a serious candidate. Uh whether they buy your franchise or maybe start their own, they're looking to do something. All right, next up is the Vistage CEO Confidence Index. And they said this they've been capturing the sentiment of CEOs and key leaders of small and mid-sized businesses since 2003. And it's a proving lead the proven leading indicator. This data is relied on by CEOs to guide in decision making. So we can see here the Q3 uh uh confidence, and it says the vistage CEO confidence index is calculated from responses to a set of six questions about current and future state of the U.S. economy, revenue and profitability projections, and hiring and investment plans. Measured over time, the index reflects trends in the U.S. economy and leads both GDP and changes to employment. So you can see that this quarter, 81, it's ticked up a bit to 81.9. Uh now a year ago, it in Q3 of 2024, it was 85.1. And then in Q3 of 2023, it was at 76. So you can see this 81.9 is right in between where it was a year ago and where it was two years ago. Uh, so uh I think that's that's interesting, but in general, you can see that Q4 last year was up. It it had a nice uh surge, and then it fell down in Q's quarters two and three this year, and now it's it's uh starting to uh go back up. And we'll see if that continues to be a trend for another quarter of growth in in Q4 here. Okay, another index I like to look at is the small business index score that uh the that is put out by the USChamber.com and uh it's presented by MetLife and the US Chamber. And the score for this quarter, for quarter three of this year is 72.0. And when you look on this scale here, the small index score, uh small business index score, this is actually the highest score in four years. Uh, so this is the since Q4 of 2021. So uh pretty pretty exciting to see this this number grow, and it's even higher than Q3 of 2024. So uh I think that's really really interesting and worth noting that the small business sentiment uh looks to be on the rise a bit, uh, which in general is is a good thing for the overall economy at large. Okay, next up we're gonna go to franchiseinsights.com. And it says that this heading, the uh title of this article is Layoffs Propel Skilled Workers to Business Ownership. This is by Michael Alston with Franchise Insights. Uh and it says headlines this week report layoffs at Amazon, UPS, and Paramount. And this was dated October 28th of 2025. So this was just three days ago. And it says, while a government shutdown continues for almost a month, tens of hundreds of thousands of skilled workers will be looking for better opportunities, with many of them taking advantage of this opportunity to take to take control of their own destinies to be their own boss. And so the question this survey asked, it said, How familiar were you with the franchises or franchise to which you inquired? And 9% said they were very familiar, 15.2% said they were already somewhat familiar, 30.3% said they were vaguely familiar, and 45.5% said that they were completely unfamiliar. And so I think uh what's a good note here is if we add up that 45.5 plus the 30.3, where it's 75.8% of all respondents said that they were vaguely familiar or completely unfamiliar with the brands that they inquired about. So as a franchise uh marketer, as a franchise seller, I think it's good for you to know that these um that most of the the leads that are coming in, at least according to this survey, roughly 76% of them are saying that they're vaguely familiar or completely unfamiliar with the brands that they are inquiring about. So if you're a new franchisor or a lesser-known franchise, or it looks like uh that that may not uh limit you as much as I I hear from clients having concerns about that. So this is data that seems to support that that buyers are willing to consider brands they know and they don't know. Okay, next up from Franchise Insights is a report talking about the states that have gained over the last year or so. And it says Texas, Florida, and New York gain the most in franchise development interest. So this is the change in share of franchise interest from Q3 of 24 to Q3 of 25. And the bright green uh states, uh, those have had the highest positive change, and those that are dark red have had the most uh negative change in interest. So you can see here that Florida, Texas, New York, those are uh bright green, and then you have Pennsylvania, Missouri, and California uh as bright red that have decreased in interest uh over the last year. So uh it's just worth noting uh the biggest gainers were Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Arizona, Alabama, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Minnesota. And the biggest losers were California, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Maryland, South Carolina, Virginia, Oklahoma, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Louisiana. So what that means to me at least is if you are recruiting in one of these green states, the states that have grown, it should be a little bit easier to find some leads of potential buyers, versus if you're looking at opening in a California or a Missouri or Pennsylvania or some of these other states, it might be a little more challenging. Uh the or may have been a more challenging over the last year or so. So just note that sometimes it depends on which states you're looking in, where you're going to see the challenges or trouble. Uh next up from Franchise Insights is the um this is another report by Michael Alston. This was released October 15th of 2025, and it says, meet the new boss, say franchise seekers. And it says the top drivers for pursuing business ownership. And so they ask people, what's driving you to want to go into business for yourself? And the number one reason is be my own boss. This has been consistent for years. 85.2% of respondents said that they want to be their own boss. Number two is 65.7%. It's income potential. Number three is a side business to supplement income at 44.4%. Lifestyle rewards is 42.6%, and tired of climbing the corporate ladder is 28.2%. So I always like to point out with this report in general that when you're unsure of what to say to a franchise candidate or in your marketing message, uh, reinforce to the buyer, prospective buyer, how uh being their own reinforce to them that buying your franchise will help them become their own boss and talk through how your franchise system helps them to be their own boss. And the final article here in franchise insights is one that I always like to end with, which is just the top 10 business categories. And so the following information is a categories showed the the the categories from the franchise insights um uh franchise portals, companies like franchiseguegator.com and franchiseopportunities and and others, where they look at over the last 90 days which categories had the most interest. So the number one category here is home services at 25.4, number two is business services at 18.9, number three is senior and health care at 10.4, number four is cleaning and maintenance at 8.4%, pet services 8.2%, food and restaurant 6.6%, child related 3.4%, automotive 3.1, uh retail 2.9%, and education 2.2. Now, the reason why I want I always like to show this is that if you are a brand in the top 10 categories, if your brand fits into one of these top 10 categories, it should in theory be a little bit easier to find prospective buyers right now. Uh and especially if you're in the top five categories, should be easier to find the um the the uh the the candidates that that are interested in your brand. So uh those are the key things I wanted to share today. Um uh well, I guess this is one that was released September 10th, just to talk about what happened in September. This was this is from the franchise.org through the International Franchise Association. And this was a press release, and it says IFA applauds introduction of landmark American Franchise Act. And so the heading reads bipartisan legislation empowers America's more than 831,000 franchise small businesses to continue operating independently and provide much needed clarity and certainty around joint employer standards. IFA to lead full-scale push as top advocacy priority. So uh this is just one of those important things for the uh joint employer rule that has been uh uh back and forth the last many years in franchising. So uh uh Congress is looking to pass this law so that uh the definition of a joint employer for franchising is very clearly defined at a minimum. So that is our episode today. Um I uh I'll give champ folks a chance to raise their hand if they have any questions. Uh and while we do that, I'll go ahead and close it out and just remind anyone that that ends up tuning in if you are interested in franchising your business or you're a franchise or and you'd like to maybe get some help or a second or a third opinion on some things you're working on, please go to our website at bigskyfranchise team.com. That's bigskyfranchise team.com and schedule a free consultation. There's no obligation, no long-term commitment, just uh an initial assessment to talk through how we might be able to serve and support you. So that's our episode today. Uh again, we would so greatly appreciate for you to subscribe to the podcast, subscribe to our YouTube channel, and please give us a rating. We we uh would really appreciate a uh uh review um and rating. So thank you so much, everyone. Happy Halloween, have a great weekend. We'll see you here next month.

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Tom DuFore

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